According to researchers from the Institute for Applied Ecology (ko-Institut), based on extrapolation of energy consumption data for the first half of 2021, greenhouse gas emissions from Germany’s industry and energy sectors are expected to rise this year compared to 2020, and industry may even miss its sector climate target, as a result of a significant increase in coal use. While experts have predicted a rise in emissions following the pandemic-induced drop last year, it is still unclear if this would cause Germany to fall short of its objectives in specific areas.
The researchers made it clear that their findings were subject to significant uncertainty and should not be interpreted as predictions. However, according to the ko-Institut, data on energy use for the first half of this year provided this week by the energy market research organization AG Energiebilanzen allowed for a “first, cautious look” at probable full-year emissions based on current consumption patterns. The results would imply that the industrial sector will fall short of the 2021 greenhouse gas reduction target set by Germany’s Climate Action Law by over 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, according to the data.
The energy industry does not have a specific goal date for 2021. However, if the industry achieves a linear decrease from the 2020 to 2022 targets, it will fall short of its notional 2021 greenhouse gas reduction objective by 8 million tonnes.
Despite the fact that Germany does not have a sector-wide greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2021, the efforts made this year will be critical in ensuring that the country remains on track to achieve its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent by 2030. However, according to data from the energy market research organization AG Energiebilanzen (AGEB), the country’s energy consumption in the first half of this year exceeded 2020 levels, as the economy recovers from the impacts of the coronavirus epidemic, according to the data. Increased fossil energy use resulted in a rise in energy-related CO2 emissions of 6.3 percent compared to the same time period in 2016.