According to the EIA’s ‘International Energy Outlook 2021’ (IEO2021) reference case, unless major policy or technological improvements are made, global energy consumption would grow by approximately 50% over the next 30 years. Although petroleum and other liquid fuels will continue to be the world’s greatest source of energy in 2050, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind will increase at a similar rate.
The expansion of renewable power generation will be fueled by falling technological prices and government policies that encourage the use of renewables to satisfy rising electricity demand. As a result, for both OECD and non-OECD nations, renewables will be the fastest-growing energy source. According to the EIA, coal and nuclear power usage in OECD nations will decline, but this will be more than offset by rising coal and nuclear power use in non-OECD countries.
By 2023, worldwide usage of petroleum and other liquids is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels, driven largely by non-OECD energy consumption increases. Because of increasing fuel economy, OECD liquid fuel usage is not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels in the next 30 years.
According to the research, the industrial sector will use petroleum liquids as a feedstock in the growing chemicals industry. Liquid fuel use in the industrial sector will increase three times faster than liquid fuel consumption in the transportation sector in OECD nations.
The residential end-use sector will see the highest growth in delivered power usage. According to the EIA, electricity would account for more than half of all energy consumed in households in non-OECD nations by 2050, up from 33% in 2020. In non-OECD commercial buildings, electricity will account for 64 percent of total energy use in 2050.
Natural gas usage is anticipated to rise globally between now and 2050. In this reference example, the industrial sector, mostly in non-OECD nations, is the primary driver of global natural gas demand increase until 2050. Gains in energy efficiency in OECD nations will cut residential natural gas usage by 2050. Among all end-use sectors, the industrial sector will consume the most natural gas and coal. Non-OECD nations will have the largest growth in industrial coal consumption, as energy-intensive industries like iron and steel manufacturing develop faster than in OECD countries.